Former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, has predicted that the 2027 presidential election will most likely go into a second round (runoff), and that President Bola Tinubu will not make it to that stage.
El-Rufai made the statement on Sunday Politics, a Channels Television programme, where he argued that the election may not produce a clear winner in the first round.
“I was governor of Kaduna State; I was one of Bola Tinubu’s biggest campaigners, but I couldn’t deliver the state to him,” El-Rufai said. “The worst-case scenario in the 2027 elections is that no winner will emerge in the first round. Electorates may have to go for a runoff, and Tinubu will not be on the ballot because, at best, he will come third.”
El-Rufai insisted that Tinubu has “no pathway to win,” adding that he had carefully done the analysis and the numbers do not favor the president. He dismissed suggestions that Tinubu could hold on to power by relying on money, state resources, or security agencies.
According to El-Rufai, former President Goodluck Jonathan once had the same advantages in 2015 but still lost to Muhammadu Buhari. “Tinubu may think he has INEC, the police, and the army. But Jonathan also had all these in 2015, and we got him out. The situation now is even worse,” he said.
He also pushed back against claims that Tinubu has never lost an election, saying that belief is exaggerated. “People say he is a political strategist. Fine. But I say, if you want to learn some lessons, invite Jonathan for a chat and ask him what happened in 2015.”
El-Rufai, once a strong supporter of Tinubu during the 2023 campaign, has since parted ways with him. Now a member of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), he has become a vocal critic of the Tinubu administration and is working with opposition forces ahead of 2027.
